![]() ![]() Second, absent at-scale availability of pharmaceutical solutions, postpeak social contacts must remain well below prepandemic values. Specifically, I demonstrate, first, how timing and efforts of testing-capacity expansion and social-contact reduction interplay to affect outbreak dynamics and can explain a large share of cross-country variation in outbreak pathways. Calibration of the system dynamics model to the ongoing outbreak (31 December 2019-) using multiple time series data (reported cases and deaths, performed tests, and social interaction proxies) from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States) informs an explanatory analysis of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies. I develop a behavioral dynamic epidemic model for multifaceted policy analysis comprising endogenous virus transmission (from severe or mild/asymptomatic cases), social contacts, and case testing and reporting. We then summarize the factors that led to rapid and extensive propagation, as well as highlight the key successes, failures and lessons learned from this outbreak and the response.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.read more read lessĪbstract: It is critical to understand the impact of distinct interventions on the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. ![]() The outbreak is described by country, in chronological order, including epidemiological parameters and implementation of outbreak containment strategies. We contextualize this outbreak in relation to previous Ebola outbreaks and outline the theories regarding its origins and emergence. This article aims to provide a detailed description of the evolution of the outbreak. It is vital that the lessons learned from the world's largest Ebola outbreak are not lost. It was also unique in its geographical distribution and multicountry spread. The 2013-2016 outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented in scale, being larger than all previous outbreaks combined, with 28 646 reported cases and 11 323 reported deaths. Abstract: Ebola virus causes a severe haemorrhagic fever in humans with high case fatality and significant epidemic potential. ![]()
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